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Learn

Six guides, about ten minutes each.

New to prediction markets? Start with how a 58¢ price becomes a 58% chance, then move on to how prices are set, what can go wrong and how to prepare a wallet. Each guide stands alone, and each links to the next.

Beginner path

  1. Reading prices as probabilitiesCents, chances, spreads, fees and what moves a price. Includes a probability slider.
  2. LMSR vs order booksTwo ways to set a price, price impact versus slippage, and the b × ln 2 bound.
  3. Prediction-market risksOutcome, liquidity, leverage, vault, oracle, stablecoin, contract and phishing risk.
  4. Wallets, networks and testnetSelf-custody, gas, test funds and how to check a link is official.
  5. Prediction markets vs bettingExchanges, bookmakers and lotteries compared, and why the law varies.
  6. Prediction markets vs pollsIncentives, sampling and calibration: when each does better.

Reference

Look something up

Glossary46 terms from outcome share to TWAP. FAQ39 direct answers, grouped by topic. Protocol overviewThe complete design on one page. Prediction markets 101The basics with a worked example.